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The anti-gay law has entered into force on February 18 2014, provocating a series of international protests which seem to be moving towards a financial loss for Uganda . The World Bank has announced its decision to postpone funding of $ 90 million allocated to health projects initiated in 2010. United States and  Netherlands, have decided to revise their commitments in bilateral aid . Decisions that could affect the budget of the fiscal year 2014/2015 .

Japan is the only government that has openly declared that his commitments with the Government of Uganda will not be compromised by the law passed in respect of non -interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign State .

Same stances, not publicly expressed but implemented, come from different countries such as: Brazil , China, India , Russia, South Africa. The African Union currently has not yet commented on .

The Ugandan government is identifying a strategy to balance against the criticism of the West on the repression against sexual minorities in the country.

An unexpected but strategic help comes from the United States . Former advisor to the Commerce Department’s African Affairs section of the Bush Administration : Rosa Whitaker on February 20 signed a contract for technical assistance in public relations with the Government of Uganda with the specific task of identifying the most effective measures to counter the negative image of country in the international community.

Rosa Whitaker has a long and fruitful collaboration with the Government of Uganda that dates back to 2006 , the year of the signing of the first contract between the parties to promote a positive image of Uganda at the White House and the American public .

The date is significant as it coincides with the further term of office of the President won in a contest marked by the presence of obvious electoral fraud that allowed the confirmation of the President Yoweri Museveni . During the 2006 elections President Museveni and the ruling National Revolutionary Movement, they recorded the lowest record of preferences : 59 %, while the historical opponent Kizza Besigye got 37% of votes. Several political observers are still convinced that whiteout the frauds committed by  NRM , both rivals for the Presidency would have amounted to about 40% with a serious risk of electoral defeat for Museveni .

The strategy from the Whitaker is based on two baselines : blame the approval of the law by the President of Uganda to the pressures and the arrogance of the West and instruct the diplomatic missions in the United States and Europe on how to beat against any allegations regarding the approval of the homophobic law. The strategy is implemented in close cooperation with President Yoweri Museveni and the Director of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: James Mugume .

The decision to sign the law against homosexuality has been caused by the arrogance of some Western Powers and the gay recruitment activities direct on Ugandan youth and students implemented in our country by some Western gay association . We stayed  quiet for a long time on this deplorable conduct of the West. We kept under observation of their activities but we remained calm because we Africans would like for us our ideas without groped to impose on others in our point of view . Unfortunately we can not say the same for the West including some Heads of State . This arrogance and interference in the internal affairs of a country does not have left me other choices than to sign the law to safeguard national sovereignty and pride.” President Museveni stated on 26 February.

We responded to a clear provocation from the West powerful gay lobby. When this lobby has begun to lobby for abandoning the bill, the Ugandan society , Parliament and all religious representations without exception , were compacted in order to ensure the passage of the law in defense of the moral values ​​of our society.” echoed the Director of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

A version of events that profoundly alters the internal political dynamics that led to the signing of the law Kill The Bill Gay . A choice not dictated by Western interference on the internal affairs of Uganda but from a political barter implemented by the Ugandan President to get the internal support to his party ‘s candidacy in the presidential elections of 2016 to allow it to monitor the delicate start-up of oil production that , if managed carefully , will transform the country into a petrodollar economy by ensuring a clear economic boom and social welfare.

Museveni ‘s candidacy in the presidential elections of 2016 has been sanctioned during the meeting of the NRM party held the second week of February 2014 Kyankwazi .

Rosa Whitaker and James Mugume have created a code of conduct sent to all diplomatic missions in Uganda in the United States and Europe on February  25 . Instructions received are intended to help Ambassadors, Consuls and representatives of the Ugandan business world abroad in defense of the position taken by the Government against homosexuality and how to utilize the correct argument to explain the reasons that brought President Museveni to sign the bill through the comprehensive publication of his speech to the nation that at the time of signature.

James Mugume also sent to the diplomatic representations of precise instructions concerning the safety of Uganda Embassies, Consulates and their personnel in West Countries “hostile” to the law . These instructions were drawn up following alleged death threats and violent demonstrations that Western gay extremist militants have voiced against various Ambassadors and Consuls Ugandans working in some Western countries .

Information disclosed without specifying the victims of these threats nor the Countries where there were these security incidents may happen.

According to some experts these threats on the safety of Ugandan diplomats in the West would be the result of false information to put pressure on Ugandan Ambassadors in Europe and the United States that they were the firsts to oppose the vote of the anti-gay law to Parliament and the signature by the President . The handbook send may intend avoid government embarrassment from some rebels Ambassadors.

The strategy of Rosa Whitaker seems to had no success in Africa.

The Secretary of the Kenyan Ministry of Public Health : James Macharia , during a debate on the issue , said that the Ugandan law should not be taken as an example by the Kenyan law becouse seriously compromises the ability to access to treatment for AIDS patients homosexuals estimated around 30% of the gay population in Kenya, according to data provided by Macharia .

In Tanzania, the Parliament has blocked an attempt to introduce a bill similar to the Ugandan anti- gay, initiative promoted by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Zanzibar : Asha Makame .

The Chairman of the Parliament of the Zanzibar : Pandu Ameri Kificho has flatly ruled that the Parliament is not the most appropriate forum to discuss the sexual orientation of Tanzanian citizens , effectively blocking the discussion at the Assembly of Zanzibar and Tanganyika at that . Tanzania is a federation composed of two countries, Tanganyika and Zanzibar with two respective and complementary Parliaments.

In Nigeria , a country that has preceded Uganda in the pejorative law against homosexuality, has adopted a destructive tactic of  blackmail against Uganda through various media and bloggers who spread false news of massacres of homosexuals in Uganda and  talking about sexual genocide . The goal is to divert attention on the international legal situation of Nigeria towards sexual minorities .

The recent anti-gay law signed by President Goodluck Jonathan provides for life imprisonment but the government tolerates the presence of far more draconian laws in force in the various States of the Federation of Nigeria led by the Sharia legal code , which provide for the punishment of death by public stoning .

In contrast to Uganda,  summary executions of suspected gay are actually occurring in Nigeria. The last case has occurred on February 18 when a young 14 year old suspected of being homosexual was lynched to death by the crowd without police officers present intervene.

In some States in the north of the Country the extremist group Boko Haram has organized cleansing operations to rid the cities by the disease of homosexuality. These cleaning operations are translated into research and summary executions of Nigerian nationals suspected of being gay without the police intervening despite the fact that Boko Haram is considered one of the most dangerous terrorist organizations in Africa, the author of the civil war in the north country began in 2011.

Only in the Western front Rosa Whitaker strategy seems to give the greatest results . Despite the threats and statements of defense of the rights of sexual minorities in Uganda , Chancelleries the West ( including the United States ) have softened their positions in fear of much more real threat from Uganda to their economies to stop military and economic cooperation in the region.

The regional weekly The East African magazine reveals a closed-door meeting between President Museveni and the Ambassadors American, European and United Nations , which took place on the evening of Thursday, February 27, 2014 . During the meeting , which lasted over two hours, Western diplomats have agreed to limit the cuts bilateral aid to areas not directly damage the Ugandan population . Sectors to identify in close collaboration with the Government of Uganda .

The news has been indirectly confirmed by a press release issued Friday, February 28, 2014 by Western diplomats , which expresses not condemnation but the disappointment on the approuved homophobic law, considered unconstitutional and in violation of the universally recognized human rights . The diplomats requesting the withdrawal of the law. In the statement makes no reference to measures that could be taken in the event that the Government of Uganda maintains the anti-gay law.

According to an insider of a European Diplomatic Headquarters , the threats of the Western Powers are a bluff becouse counterproductive to West interests in the region. Uganda is now a de facto regional power that cannot be ignored .

According to the insider  revelations the intention to block the World Bank pledged 90 million Uganda had already been canceled as a result of the meeting of 27 February, because this aids are intended to improve the safety of childbirth and family planning, with direct impact on the population of Uganda.

If you take the case of Washington, limited to only a one-sided version of the relations with Uganda , the United States is the largest donor to the African country . Among bilateral aid , loans, cooperative projects , American support is quantified to over $ 2 billion per year. In this estimation are beyond the budget for military cooperation for which the information is considered by the Obama administration as ” Classified” .

Before the weight that exerts America, Uganda it can be assumed that a position taken by the White House against the anti-gay law and the threat to reconsider the relationship is sufficient to force the Ugandan government to review the decisions taken . On the contrary, collaboration and services that Uganda offers to the United States are much higher than the aid received .

Uganda is the principal U.S. partner in the fight against terrorism in Africa and guarantor of the economic interests of U.S. Corporations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Somalia and South Sudan , all strategic countries where there are the American and Ugandan troops involved in officially or secret operations, as is the case in the east DRC, where UPDF and U.S. special forces are present in some areas of North Kivu without a clear consensus from the Kinshasa Government and the United Nations.

Uganda is also the core of the military contingent in Somalia. His withdrawal would represent the immediate collapse of the government, the victory of the Islamic extremist group Al- Shabaab and the spread of terrorism of Al- Qaeda at the continental level.

The reality is that the West’s addiction to Uganda is higher than the Uganda dependence to US and Europe. Aid that ultimately are the price to pay for these two economic blocs to maintain the alliance of Uganda especially now that President Museveni is giving signals to prefer new allies : Russia and China.

The capacity of the Ugandan government to influence West decisions has already been demonstrated in 2011 when in March , President Museveni summoned the ambassadors Western imposing the end of their support to the opposition , informing them otherwise, all oil contracts would be reviewed and awarded to other international competitors. After the meeting, the West broke the support of opposition leader Kizza Besigye abandoning him to his fate of political failure .

Currently Kizza Besigye is a failed political figure and his party: Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is disintegrating because of an internal struggle began in November 2013 after resigning the presidency of its founder : Besigye .

Regional economic commentators consider the cutting of western aid as a positive factor for Uganda since they are used as a weapon of blackmail in an attempt to impose foreign policies . Without this help Uganda would be forced to rely on their own strength with a greater focus on the management of oil revenues that will begin to enter into the coffers of the government from 2016 onwards  “noted Frederich Golooba Mutebi , a political writer and researcher based in Kampala and Kigali ( Rwanda) .

Personally I agree with the analysis offered by Mutebi . Western pressures are likely to emerge adverse effects from those desired , reinforcing the climate of homophobia in the country that is not so deep as we can suppose.

For the majority of Ugandan homosexuality is a false issue used to hide much more serious problems such as health , education, democracy , respect for human rights , opposition freedom , corruption and aggressive regional policies that effectively condemn the Country to a state of permanent war .

It should also take into account the possible exploitation by alleged gay Ugandans. Taking advantage of the political mistake committed by their government in launching this despicable law, and taking advantage of the outrage and international solidarity , these individuals can promote personal goals declaring themself homosexuals in order to obtain a residence permit for political asylum in the West or to avoid deportation to Uganda caused by a statute of illegal immigration in the host Country .

Being alive the myth of Western prosperity between various African emigrants would be enough form them to declare publicly homosexual status (regardless of whether it corresponds to the truth or not ) to create serious difficulties in applying the deportation Western government in Uganda. Of course this also applies to migrants Nigerians far greater than those Ugandans in Europe and in America.

Instead of implementing pronouncements and threats that are unlikely to be put into practice, a more mature and less hypocritical West behavior can contribute  to create a serious national debate on the issue more profitable for the respect of sexual minorities in Uganda.

The proof lies in the law against pornography launched almost simultaneously with that against homosexuality. Since its entry into force have registered 10 cases of gang rapes committed by criminal gangs or youth secure sure of legal  protection because the victims were wearing skirts , garment prohibited by the new law , considered an insult to the Ugandan culture and moral values ​​.

These acts and other minor cases of violence or abuse against women , have led public opinion in Uganda to open a serious social and legal debate over law on anti miniskirt that could oblige the Parliament to revise the text by removing articles that infringe the personal freedom.

Same process could occur for the anti-gay law . The first signs are already present. Several Ugandan journalists bravely distanced themselves from the law and are publicly criticizing it despite the fact that their writers and public interventions could be considered as the promotion of homosexuality and punishable by 4 to 7 years of imprisonment.

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